“Trump, China, Russia: Trade War and Geopolitical Shifts Echoing 1945”

Introduction: A New Era in Global Politics?

The return of Donald Trump to the White House marks not just the resumption of a political career but also the beginning of what many are calling a new geopolitical era. With his characteristic assertiveness and transactional approach to international relations, Trump’s re-election as the 47th President of the United States has sparked both hope and fear across the globe. At the heart of this transformation is the evolving relationship between the United States, China, and Russia—a triad that is not just strategic but deeply entwined in global economic and political dynamics.

The Trump Factor: A Paradigm Shift

Donald Trump’s return to power has been described as a “structural change” with far-reaching implications. Unlike his first term, when he was still adapting to the norms of the Republican establishment, this second administration is marked by a more cohesive and self-sufficient inner circle, largely composed of individuals loyal to Trump’s vision. This shift has significant consequences for international policy.

In the first term, Trump was often seen as an outlier, a disruptor within the traditional frameworks of global diplomacy. However, his second term presents something altogether different: a fully realized administration that aligns more closely with the interests and ambitions of Big Tech companies such as Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, and Elon Musk’s Tesla. The interplay between this new administration and these tech giants is shaping not just trade policy but also technological competition on a global scale.

Trade Wars: From Tariffs to Technological Battles

One of Trump’s most notable actions during his first term was the imposition of steep tariffs on Chinese imports, a move that ignited what many describe as an economic war between the U.S. and China. These were not just trade disputes; they represented a fundamental rethinking of global supply chains and a challenge to the long-standing dominance of the United States in world markets.

The response from Big Tech was swift and significant. Companies such as Apple and Tesla, which heavily rely on Chinese manufacturing—especially for critical components like rare earth minerals and semiconductors—found themselves caught between geopolitical pressures and economic realities. This dynamic has only intensified under Trump’s second term, where the focus is now not just on tariffs but also on technological decoupling, a process that could reshape global innovation and production.

Russia: A New Eldorado?

While the U.S.-China trade conflict dominates headlines, another critical axis of Trump’s foreign policy strategy involves Russia. Trump has repeatedly expressed an interest in working directly with Vladimir Putin to resolve various international issues, from Ukraine to Syria. This approach starkly contrasts with that of his predecessors and highlights a shift towards bilateral negotiations over multilateral frameworks.

This is not merely about diplomacy—it is also economic. Post-war Russia presents a unique opportunity for investment, especially in sectors that have been devastated by years of sanctions. Trump’s vision seems to be one where the U.S. plays a more active role in capitalizing on this situation, potentially at the expense of China and other global players.

The Return of the 1945 Moment?

Some analysts argue that the current geopolitical landscape bears striking similarities to events following World War II—specifically, 1945, which marked the beginning of a new world order. With Trump’s return, there are concerns that we may be witnessing another such turning point.

The establishment of new alliances, the redefinition of economic partnerships, and the increasing dominance of non-Western powers all suggest that we may be entering an era akin to the post-war period. However, rather than a division into two clear blocs (the East and West), the current configuration is more complex and multipolar.

The Rise of a New World Order

This new world order is not just about power dynamics—it’s also about economic structures and technological innovation. China’s rise as a global superpower has already begun to challenge American hegemony, but now with Trump at the helm, this competition may become even more intense.

China is currently investing heavily in sectors such as artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing—areas where it is rapidly closing the gap with Western counterparts. The recent announcement by China that it has achieved a temperature of 100 million degrees Celsius for nuclear fusion—a critical milestone on the path to sustainable energy—illustrates this point.

Moreover, China’s push towards self-sufficiency in semiconductors and other high-tech industries is not just a matter of economic strategy; it is also a strategic imperative. This ambition has already begun to reshape global supply chains and could have profound implications for the U.S.-China trade relationship.

Conclusion: A World on the Brink?

As we stand at this pivotal moment in history, one thing is clear: the world is changing rapidly, and the role of the United States—led by a figure as polarizing as Donald Trump—is central to these changes. Whether or not this marks a new “1945 moment” remains to be seen, but what is certain is that we are in an era defined by economic competition, geopolitical realignment, and technological innovation.

For Poland and other nations caught in the crosshairs of these global shifts, understanding this complex web of relationships—between Trump, China, Russia, and the broader international community—is essential. As Prof. Bogdan Góralczyk has noted, we are not merely observers of history; we are participants in its unfolding.